Recent speculation on X has ignited discussions about the possibility of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the embattled FTX founder, receiving an early pardon from the outgoing President Joe Biden.
The conversation gained traction when widely followed influencer Wall Street Mav tweeted, “The second-largest donor to the Democrats might receive an early pardon from President Biden,” referring to SBF.
Elon Musk Reacts
The tweet has garnered over 1.1 million views, attracting commentaries from various prominent figures like Elon Musk.
In response to the speculation, Musk remarked that the real surprise would be if the rumor were untrue. “I will be shocked if this doesn’t happen,” he stated.
Musk’s comment aligns with his skepticism toward the current administration. A vocal critic of several policies and decisions by the Biden administration, Musk has frequently expressed his distrust.
Notably, during the recent presidential election, Musk openly supported the opposition, led by Donald Trump, who ultimately secured the presidency. Trump will take office next month, promising significant policy shifts from the outgoing administration.
I will be shocked if this doesn’t happen
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 23, 2024
Bankman-Fried Crimes
Notably, Bankman-Fried orchestrated a multi-billion-dollar fraud involving misappropriating customer funds. He faced charges including wire fraud, securities fraud, commodities fraud, money laundering, and campaign finance violations.
He received a sentence of 25 years in prison in March 2024, in addition to three years of supervised release, with the judge ordering him to forfeit $11 billion.
Now, due to his strong ties with the ruling class, particularly through his campaign donations, speculation is circulating in the crypto community that he could receive an early pardon.
Can President Biden Pardon SBF?
The U.S. president has the constitutional power to grant pardons for federal offenses. They include those related to drug offenses, financial crimes, tax evasion, and other violations of federal law.
Since SBF faced conviction for orchestrating a fraud involving the misappropriation of customer funds and other crimes under U.S. federal law, he would be eligible for a pardon.
Meanwhile, despite the online chatter, prediction markets paint a different picture. Polymarket, a decentralized platform for trading on real-world events, places the probability of President Biden pardoning SBF at only about 5%. This suggests that most market participants view this as a long shot.
Notably, just two weeks ago, President Joe Biden granted clemency, which included pardons for 39 individuals and reductions of sentences for 1,499 others.
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